Yeah, Dems should not exercise any of the dwindling power they have until all of their power has evaporated. Then, they can email press releases into the void to their hearts' content.
At the very least, if they're going to do nothing, they should not extend Obamacare subsidies, either. It's bad policy and will hurt people, but Republicans chose to do it and should pay the price. Republicans have stabbed Democratic administrations in the back on economic policy time and time again to their great benefit (2010 being the most notable example.).
The rebuttal is when your party is historically unpopular you have nothing to preserve by capitulating to an adversary that is going to cut you out entirely anyway. I don't know what "leftists" has to do with anything but I'm willing to bet that it's mostly a factor of you being so constantly online that you're cross-eyed.
The Republicans won the 2014 elections handily after the 2013 shutdown. The American electorate has a very short memory.
It’s also arguably even worse politics for the Dems to not shutdown. Approval ratings for the Dem leadership fell enormously after March. If they don’t trigger a shutdown, the base will revolt against the establishment and the party will have a civil war. I personally think that could be a good thing in the long term but if you’re a congressional Dem interested in self-preservation, you would probably want to avoid a primary challenge.
I think it's pretty telling that this post reaches back to *1995* to find evidence that shutdowns are politically unpopular. You know what else was controversial in 1995? Smoking bans in restaurants and public spaces. Everything was very different in the 1990s, politics most of all.
Now argue for why the Dems should affirmatively vote to support the continued gov't operations that the Trump Admin is providing. Or why Dems should ask for some mind-numbing minutae policy that no one will ever hear of, in exchange for keeping the gov't open.
This stream of "logical" arguments doesn't meet the moment.
The moment is an actual, legit HORROR taking over historic America and transforming the world into worse Shit.
Why Dems should participate in this by voting "YES" to affirm Trumpism is beyond me ... and beyond the scope of any nicey rational arguments. It's absurd - and bad politics.
Voting to fund the government isn't "affirming Trumpism". And as far as it goes Trump would be quite happy to not spend money on the vast majority of things the Dems would like to keep operating. Meanwhile he'll just continue to do what he wants to do anyway. Attempting a shutdown is a losing proposition in every possible respect.
"Now argue for why the Dems should affirmatively vote to support the continued gov't operations that the Trump Admin is providing."
He already did. See the section entitled "Shutdowns are Bad Policy". The administration still provides (even if the leaders of it would rather not) FDA and EPA inspections, SNAP benefits, etc. A lot of good and useful things are suspended during a shutdown. Voting to keep those things going isn't affirming Trumpism.
I have to agree with Ezra here. I don't how Democrats can morally fund this government that is set on turning the US into a competitive authoritarianism regime. Generally, I agree that shutdowns are bad for the party pushing the shutdown, but I'm not sure the Democrats will lose that battle this time. First, it seems that Republicans will be far less likely to negotiate -- as tends to be the case. Secondly, support for Democrats among Democrats is so low that they need to take risks to reinvigorate the base. Otherwise, we risk low turnout in the mid-terms.
Shutting down the government over healthcare subsidies is absolutely a loser of a political move. And I agree that on net shutdowns are bad politically (I didn't support the opportunity earlier in the year).
But there are high-impact, visible, very popular things they could demand now -- no arresting Latinos for simply looking Latino, no troops in our cities, etc. Get the MAGA folks to defend not making a deal on those things. I get the history of (lack of) success, but these aren't normal times and there's an opportunity to fight over things that are firmly on the Democrats side of public opinion.
I think you are right. I made this argument pretty hard in February but the one problem for Democrats is a huge reason they lost in 2024 was they didn't do enough to fire up the base. Zohran Mamdani won the NYC mayoral primary not because he was bipartisan and reached across the asile but becuase he fired up his base. I think a shutdown is an interesting way to Democrats to fire up their base.
But I also think a shutdown is bad politics, unless the jam in the Senate is really bad.
I think an even worse idea is the constant brinksmanship. The current administration, with the tacit approval of Congress has led us to this abnormal situation with no penalties. Maybe there should be penalties for all these histrionics?
Above, you write "The politics of 'do something' is not great". I agree! The Democrats should do nothing!
Don't try to bargain with the Republicans, because you know they're just going to turn around and stab you in the back via rescissions. The Democrats should literally do nothing, by which I mean they should not bother negotiating, and not offer their votes for any partisan nonsense bills with poison pills.
They should let the Republicans pass their own continuing resolution, because the Republicans are in the majority! They hold both houses! They (theoretically) have the votes!
The Democrats should offer to vote for a clean CR, because that's the absolute best they can hope for. Otherwise, they should say (everywhere, all the time) that it's the majority's responsibility to put together a budget bill.
This is all about catering to the excessively online won have NO CLUE how much shutting down the government would backfire on Democrats.
Up to now, Democrats can honestly say that everything what's wrong is all Trump’s fault. If they shut down the government, that wrecks their ability to say that. And we all know that the press will never spin a shutdown in our favor.
Why don't the dems force a shutdown, and make a bill that outlaws pocket receissions? Then their only demand to get that bill passed, then they will move forward with bipartisan negotiations.
Up to now, Democrats can honestly say that everything that's gone wrong in the US since January 21, 2025 is Trump’s and the Republicans' fault. Democrats forcing a shutdown makes it "both sides" and the media will depict it as both sides.
Which means the non-obessively-online people will turn against the Democrats for having started a shutdown.
That depends on what the Democrats are demanding. If it's some wonky thing that's hard to explain or stirs no outrage, yeah, people won't like the pain of the shutdown and will blame them.
But if the thing they're fighting for is clear and popular enough, people will see the X or Y tradeoff, and side with whichever has the more powerful, popular narrative.
I'm not sure about the last point. I think most non-obsessively-inline people know tat republicans have the trifecta. So Occam's razor is that the party in power will be blamed for the shutdown.
yeah, i don’t understand why so many rank and file democrats miss this lapse in logic. they will absolutely agree that republicans benefit from double standards and a friendly media ecosystem. if that is the case, then why would they expect voters to not apply the double standard during a shutdown?
it makes little sense to me, but that’s what desperation does to people
It depends on the clarity of the demand and how popular those demands are. At some point the thing you're demanding is so overwhelmingly popular that getting the GOP to defend it is worse for them than the shutdown is for you.
The argument is really over whether we've reached that point or not, and whether the Democrats in charge are capable of identifying those things.
The people who originated this are the people who want the DSA to take over the party. They think it's all about class struggle and refuse to admit anything else matters, which means they're doomed to failure because they don't understand - or won't admit - how much race, gender and culture dominate politics in this country. Class politics doesn't motivate the masses the way they say it does.
that makes sense. though, it is confusing to see people like Ezra Klein fall for it. he’s not a DSA type, yet here he is, asking for a shutdown. hopefully Schumer understands this and will kick this down the road. the move is to let the trump admin destroy the economy and the fed. focus on that in 2026
The Democrats refuse to sign on to a lousy funding bill, but Mike Johnson has sent the House home and refuses to re-open it, to prevent having to swear in a Democratic representative who will be the final vote forcing a vote to make the Epstein files become public. Why does that blockage from Republicans get no mention?
I happened to listen to Ezra Klein's piece a few days before reading this - quality rebuttal, especially in the wake of the Kirk shooting. Bipartisanship is going to need to start somewhere or we're all screwed, so why not a bill which will pass no matter what?
I just don't understand what the Dems even can do here. Could they try to target moderate Republicans like Collins and try to extract favors in exchange for a smooth budgeting process? Are there any upcoming legislative milestones where political capital is better spent? It just kinda feels like this stuff doesn't matter because Trump is going to do whatever he wants anyway - he seems perfectly happy to ignore his own senators almost as much as Democrats.
While I do not agree that Trump is "wildly unpopular" (it depends on what bad polling you wish to subscribe to, at a time when polling is not particularly valuable except related to VA and NJ elections this November), the rest of your analysis is spot on. Democrats will almost certainly be blamed for shutting down the government. As a veteran Senate official during the '95-'96 shutdown, I can promise the Democrats that it won't end well... for them.
Is there actually that much division within the Democratic Party base over whether Trump is a fascist actively trying to destroy our republic and replace it with an evil, Putinist personalist dictatorship? Maybe it's my San Francisco bubble, but that seems pretty obvious to everyone I know these days.
This isn't about the base, it's about the rest of America.
Democrats have been able to honestly say that everything that's gone bad since January 21 is Trump’s fault. A shutdown forced by Democrats dilutes if not destroys that message in people's minds.
Yeah, Dems should not exercise any of the dwindling power they have until all of their power has evaporated. Then, they can email press releases into the void to their hearts' content.
At the very least, if they're going to do nothing, they should not extend Obamacare subsidies, either. It's bad policy and will hurt people, but Republicans chose to do it and should pay the price. Republicans have stabbed Democratic administrations in the back on economic policy time and time again to their great benefit (2010 being the most notable example.).
You lefties are always in your feelings about everything. You can't admit he's right.
Children should be seen and not heard.
Got a rebuttal for this?
https://open.substack.com/pub/mattglassman/p/shutdowns-and-filibusters?
The rebuttal is when your party is historically unpopular you have nothing to preserve by capitulating to an adversary that is going to cut you out entirely anyway. I don't know what "leftists" has to do with anything but I'm willing to bet that it's mostly a factor of you being so constantly online that you're cross-eyed.
So you have no rebuttal other than making stuff up.
Who’s “he” in this instance?
Glassman
looks like you were right and glassman was wrong. kudos
The Republicans won the 2014 elections handily after the 2013 shutdown. The American electorate has a very short memory.
It’s also arguably even worse politics for the Dems to not shutdown. Approval ratings for the Dem leadership fell enormously after March. If they don’t trigger a shutdown, the base will revolt against the establishment and the party will have a civil war. I personally think that could be a good thing in the long term but if you’re a congressional Dem interested in self-preservation, you would probably want to avoid a primary challenge.
From the left? The last thing lefties should do is primary Democrats in swing districts.
I think it's pretty telling that this post reaches back to *1995* to find evidence that shutdowns are politically unpopular. You know what else was controversial in 1995? Smoking bans in restaurants and public spaces. Everything was very different in the 1990s, politics most of all.
No
Now argue for why the Dems should affirmatively vote to support the continued gov't operations that the Trump Admin is providing. Or why Dems should ask for some mind-numbing minutae policy that no one will ever hear of, in exchange for keeping the gov't open.
This stream of "logical" arguments doesn't meet the moment.
The moment is an actual, legit HORROR taking over historic America and transforming the world into worse Shit.
Why Dems should participate in this by voting "YES" to affirm Trumpism is beyond me ... and beyond the scope of any nicey rational arguments. It's absurd - and bad politics.
Voting to fund the government isn't "affirming Trumpism". And as far as it goes Trump would be quite happy to not spend money on the vast majority of things the Dems would like to keep operating. Meanwhile he'll just continue to do what he wants to do anyway. Attempting a shutdown is a losing proposition in every possible respect.
"Now argue for why the Dems should affirmatively vote to support the continued gov't operations that the Trump Admin is providing."
He already did. See the section entitled "Shutdowns are Bad Policy". The administration still provides (even if the leaders of it would rather not) FDA and EPA inspections, SNAP benefits, etc. A lot of good and useful things are suspended during a shutdown. Voting to keep those things going isn't affirming Trumpism.
I don't think any of the lefties who are posting against Glassman actually read what he wrote.
I have to agree with Ezra here. I don't how Democrats can morally fund this government that is set on turning the US into a competitive authoritarianism regime. Generally, I agree that shutdowns are bad for the party pushing the shutdown, but I'm not sure the Democrats will lose that battle this time. First, it seems that Republicans will be far less likely to negotiate -- as tends to be the case. Secondly, support for Democrats among Democrats is so low that they need to take risks to reinvigorate the base. Otherwise, we risk low turnout in the mid-terms.
Who runs the media? Republican owners.
They. Will. Not. Spin. This. 8n. Our. Favor.
That's why the demands have to be simple and clear and popular enough that it's hard to spin them.
(healthcare subsidies are not those things)
Know what's super simple and impossible Democrats to spin favorably?
Democrats causing what Fox will call "the Schumer Shutdown".
Read Glassman's piece, he's already dealt with that.
Shutting down the government over healthcare subsidies is absolutely a loser of a political move. And I agree that on net shutdowns are bad politically (I didn't support the opportunity earlier in the year).
But there are high-impact, visible, very popular things they could demand now -- no arresting Latinos for simply looking Latino, no troops in our cities, etc. Get the MAGA folks to defend not making a deal on those things. I get the history of (lack of) success, but these aren't normal times and there's an opportunity to fight over things that are firmly on the Democrats side of public opinion.
I think you are right. I made this argument pretty hard in February but the one problem for Democrats is a huge reason they lost in 2024 was they didn't do enough to fire up the base. Zohran Mamdani won the NYC mayoral primary not because he was bipartisan and reached across the asile but becuase he fired up his base. I think a shutdown is an interesting way to Democrats to fire up their base.
But I also think a shutdown is bad politics, unless the jam in the Senate is really bad.
I think an even worse idea is the constant brinksmanship. The current administration, with the tacit approval of Congress has led us to this abnormal situation with no penalties. Maybe there should be penalties for all these histrionics?
This is some real defeatist BS here.
Above, you write "The politics of 'do something' is not great". I agree! The Democrats should do nothing!
Don't try to bargain with the Republicans, because you know they're just going to turn around and stab you in the back via rescissions. The Democrats should literally do nothing, by which I mean they should not bother negotiating, and not offer their votes for any partisan nonsense bills with poison pills.
They should let the Republicans pass their own continuing resolution, because the Republicans are in the majority! They hold both houses! They (theoretically) have the votes!
The Democrats should offer to vote for a clean CR, because that's the absolute best they can hope for. Otherwise, they should say (everywhere, all the time) that it's the majority's responsibility to put together a budget bill.
Republicans don't have the votes to do that. They need the bipartisan deal to avoid a fillibuster in the Senate.
THANK YOU!
This is all about catering to the excessively online won have NO CLUE how much shutting down the government would backfire on Democrats.
Up to now, Democrats can honestly say that everything what's wrong is all Trump’s fault. If they shut down the government, that wrecks their ability to say that. And we all know that the press will never spin a shutdown in our favor.
Why don't the dems force a shutdown, and make a bill that outlaws pocket receissions? Then their only demand to get that bill passed, then they will move forward with bipartisan negotiations.
Up to now, Democrats can honestly say that everything that's gone wrong in the US since January 21, 2025 is Trump’s and the Republicans' fault. Democrats forcing a shutdown makes it "both sides" and the media will depict it as both sides.
Which means the non-obessively-online people will turn against the Democrats for having started a shutdown.
That depends on what the Democrats are demanding. If it's some wonky thing that's hard to explain or stirs no outrage, yeah, people won't like the pain of the shutdown and will blame them.
But if the thing they're fighting for is clear and popular enough, people will see the X or Y tradeoff, and side with whichever has the more powerful, popular narrative.
I'm not sure about the last point. I think most non-obsessively-inline people know tat republicans have the trifecta. So Occam's razor is that the party in power will be blamed for the shutdown.
Not when Democrats say they're doing it.
This isn't 1995, when the right-wing media ecosystem was much weaker than it is now. Democrats cannot count on the media to spin it for them.
yeah, i don’t understand why so many rank and file democrats miss this lapse in logic. they will absolutely agree that republicans benefit from double standards and a friendly media ecosystem. if that is the case, then why would they expect voters to not apply the double standard during a shutdown?
it makes little sense to me, but that’s what desperation does to people
It depends on the clarity of the demand and how popular those demands are. At some point the thing you're demanding is so overwhelmingly popular that getting the GOP to defend it is worse for them than the shutdown is for you.
The argument is really over whether we've reached that point or not, and whether the Democrats in charge are capable of identifying those things.
The people who originated this are the people who want the DSA to take over the party. They think it's all about class struggle and refuse to admit anything else matters, which means they're doomed to failure because they don't understand - or won't admit - how much race, gender and culture dominate politics in this country. Class politics doesn't motivate the masses the way they say it does.
that makes sense. though, it is confusing to see people like Ezra Klein fall for it. he’s not a DSA type, yet here he is, asking for a shutdown. hopefully Schumer understands this and will kick this down the road. the move is to let the trump admin destroy the economy and the fed. focus on that in 2026
The Democrats refuse to sign on to a lousy funding bill, but Mike Johnson has sent the House home and refuses to re-open it, to prevent having to swear in a Democratic representative who will be the final vote forcing a vote to make the Epstein files become public. Why does that blockage from Republicans get no mention?
You left out that it's easier for Trump to rule as an autocrat during a shutdown.
I happened to listen to Ezra Klein's piece a few days before reading this - quality rebuttal, especially in the wake of the Kirk shooting. Bipartisanship is going to need to start somewhere or we're all screwed, so why not a bill which will pass no matter what?
I just don't understand what the Dems even can do here. Could they try to target moderate Republicans like Collins and try to extract favors in exchange for a smooth budgeting process? Are there any upcoming legislative milestones where political capital is better spent? It just kinda feels like this stuff doesn't matter because Trump is going to do whatever he wants anyway - he seems perfectly happy to ignore his own senators almost as much as Democrats.
This may be a situation where the people we need to persuade will not be persuaded unless they feel it themselves
While I do not agree that Trump is "wildly unpopular" (it depends on what bad polling you wish to subscribe to, at a time when polling is not particularly valuable except related to VA and NJ elections this November), the rest of your analysis is spot on. Democrats will almost certainly be blamed for shutting down the government. As a veteran Senate official during the '95-'96 shutdown, I can promise the Democrats that it won't end well... for them.
Is there actually that much division within the Democratic Party base over whether Trump is a fascist actively trying to destroy our republic and replace it with an evil, Putinist personalist dictatorship? Maybe it's my San Francisco bubble, but that seems pretty obvious to everyone I know these days.
Read the article.
This isn't about the base, it's about the rest of America.
Democrats have been able to honestly say that everything that's gone bad since January 21 is Trump’s fault. A shutdown forced by Democrats dilutes if not destroys that message in people's minds.